One week trend analysis and prediction of the hott

2022-10-01
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One week trend analysis and prediction of PE market (12.10

first, the Asian market

due to the low demand season and the upcoming long holiday, the PE demand in the Asian market is weak, especially in China, Malaysia and Indonesia. The international crude oil, naphtha and ethylene markets are still in a bear market, which is very detrimental to the stability of the PE market. The reduction of China's tariffs to suppliers and importers, and our technicians focus on the operation of electronic universal testing machines Procedures and how to solve external interference have left some room for raising prices, but the market has not responded much, and only the HDPE quotation of Southeast Asian suppliers has taken the opportunity to increase. Both production and circulation sectors had expected that the tariff reduction would stimulate importers to replenish lower inventories, but this was not obvious. Judging from the trading situation this week, the actual number of transactions has not increased

ldpe: with the official announcement of tariff concessions, speculation about the scope and date of tariff concessions has subsided in recent weeks. Prices in the Far East fell by about $10, while prices in Southeast Asia remained stable. In December, tons of LDPE film materials changed hands in USD/ton (CFR China, Hong Kong)

lldpe: the price in the Far East fell by about $5, and the price in Southeast Asia remained stable. The trading volume has not increased significantly this week, because China has ordered a large number of goods, which will arrive in nearly two to three weeks. The bid price of tons in December is $410 CFR China and Hong Kong. The manufacturer initially quoted us dollars per ton, but later negotiated a price of US $420 per ton

hdpe: Southeast Asia market rose $15/ton. The market sentiment was stable. After China announced that the tariff was reduced from 16% to 14.2%, there was no new order demand. The price of film material per ton is 470 US dollars/ton CFR China and Hong Kong. In the Southeast Asian market, the price is higher than US $10, and at least one large importer expressed interest in purchasing at US $480/ton CFR spot or US $500 90 day letter of credit. The market price in India is 440 US dollars/ton and that in Pakistan is 470 US dollars/ton

international market quotation (price collection date: Friday, December 14, 2001, unit: USD/ton)

product name FD northwest Europe FOB northwest Europe FOB United States CFR Far East CFR Southeast Asia CFR West Asia

ldpe general grade -

lldpe butene grade -

hdpe injection grade

hdpe blow molding grade

hdpe film grade

2 The domestic market

affected by China's official announcement to reduce import tariffs and sluggish domestic demand, the market continued to oscillate downward, with a small decline in high-pressure and linear stability, and a large decline in low-pressure. At present, the market transaction is very light. Although the prices of many brands are very low, there is still a price without a market. From this point of view, the current price level is not the key factor to determine demand, and the recovery of consumer demand confidence is the key to determine the stability and strength of the market. The specific analysis is as follows

ldpe market price performance in the first half of the week was relatively stable, and the price fell slightly in the second half of the week. The ex factory prices of Yanshan, Qilu and Maoming have been reduced successively. At present, the ex factory prices are basically in the range of yuan/ton, slightly lower than last week. The market prices in various parts of the country are in the range of yuan/ton, slightly lower than last week. Yanshan 200000 t/a new high-voltage production line has produced qualified products a few days ago. At present, the device is producing ld160 (film material, melt index), with an ex factory price of 5400 yuan/ton; Ld605 (note plastic, melt index 4..5) factory price 5300 yuan/ton. Such a low price will worsen the already weak market

ldpe manufacturer's ex factory price (price collection date: December, 2001) Unit: yuan/ton

manufacturer's brand use price rise and fall sales preferences

Yanshan Petrochemical ld605 plastic injection 5300 just output

Yanshan Petrochemical ld160 film material 5400 just output

Yanshan Petrochemical 1i2a-1 plastic injection 58000 flat sale will be converted to 1i50a flower material

Yanshan Petrochemical 1f7b film material 7100 -400 flat sale not produced

Yanshan Petrochemical 1c7a coating material 6100 -200 best-selling regional price

Qilu Sinopec tn00 film 5700 -50 unsalable cash price, acceptance 5750 yuan

Qilu Petrochemical tn26 film 5700 -50 unsalable cash price, acceptance 5750 yuan

Shanghai Petrochemical N150 film 57000 unsalable lowest price 5650 yuan

Shanghai Petrochemical Q200 film 57000 unsalable lowest price 5650 yuan

Shanghai Petrochemical q281 film 58000 unsalable lowest price 5750 yuan

Daqing Petrochemical f18d film 60000 unsalable provincial price, Ex factory 5700 yuan

Maoming ethylene film 58000 yuan unsalable preferential price 5700 yuan

Maoming ethylene film 58000 yuan unsalable preferential price 5700 yuan

Lanhua company 1i2a injection plastic 6100 -100 unsalable price in the province

lldpe affected by sluggish demand and slightly more imported goods in the near future, the market continues to decline. In addition, China lowered import tariffs, and some trade panic merchants sold out. In order to adapt to the market downturn and complete the inventory clearance task at the end of the year, domestic LLDPE manufacturers have reduced the ex factory price. At present, the domestic ex factory price is in the range of yuan/ton, slightly lower than last week. Mainstream prices in the domestic market are also concentrated in the range of yuan/ton, with a few weeks of decline of 50

-100 yuan/ton. Some insiders believe that the linear market should be close to the bottom, and the price fluctuation will not be too large in the short term

lldpe manufacturer's ex factory price (price collection date: Thursday, December 6, 2001) unit: yuan/ton

manufacturer's brand price rise and fall sales preferences

Daqing Petrochemical 70425000 flat sales non local warehouse 4700

Jilin Chemical Company 70425000 -200 flat sales non local warehouse 4700

Qilu Petrochemical 70424800 -200 flat sales acceptance, the minimum 4700 yuan

Maoming Petrochemical 70424900 flat sales acceptance, Large household 4800 yuan

Zhongyuan Petrochemical 70504800 -150 flat sale Railway Transportation except for the first-rate products 4750

Tianjin United 708548500 flat sale

Guangzhou Petrochemical 70424900 -100 flat sale listing price

Panjin Ethylene 0209aa 4900 -150 flat sale batch price

Lanhua company 103aa 5000 flat sale price within the province, and non local warehouse 4710

HDPE although the quotation in Southeast Asia was increased by $15/ton by taking the opportunity of China's tariff reduction, However, the domestic HDPE market is still depressed, and the price continues to fall, with a decline of yuan/ton. The ex factory price of wire drawing and injection molding products has fallen below the psychological bottom line of 5000 yuan/ton. Although domestic enterprises are still competing to reduce prices, sales are still difficult. At present, the ex factory price of film grade products is yuan/ton, wire drawing grade is yuan/ton, and injection molding grade is yuan/ton. At present, the mainstream prices in the markets of all regions are: film grade yuan/ton, drawing grade yuan/ton, injection grade yuan/ton. Recently, although there are not many HDPE imported goods at domestic ports, the prices of some brands are relatively low

hdpe manufacturer's ex factory price (price collection date: December, 2001) unit: yuan/ton

manufacturer's brand use price rise and fall sales conditions preferential conditions

Yanshan Petrochemical 5000S wire drawing material 5100-100 flat sale listing, the previous turnover of 4950 yuan

Yanshan Petrochemical 5200b hollow material 5300-100 flat sale listing price, In the early stage, the turnover was 5260 yuan

Yanshan Petrochemical 7000F film material 69000 flat sales were not produced

Yanshan Petrochemical 2200j plastic injection 63000 flat sales were not produced

Daqing Petrochemical 5000S wire drawing material 5300 -200 unsalable in the province, and the non local warehouse was 5100 yuan

Daqing Petrochemical 2200j plastic injection 5250 0 unsalable

formed a cash price of Qilu Petrochemical 6098 film material 5550 -350 from plastic mold and plastic machinery manufacturing, Acceptance of 5600 yuan

Yangzi Petrochemical 5000S wire drawing material 5150 -350 unsalable

Yangzi Petrochemical 7000F film material 5700 -200 unsalable

Lanhua 5000S wire drawing material 56000 unsalable provincial price

Fushun Petrochemical 2908 plastic injection 51000 unsalable provincial price

Fushun Petrochemical 2909 plastic injection 51000 unsalable provincial outgoing factory 4800 yuan

Panjin Ethylene 5070 plastic injection 51000 unsalable regional price

.

market price of domestic regions (price collection date: Friday, December, 2001) unit: yuan/ton

name East China, South China, North China, northeast, northwest and southwest

hdpe wire drawing grade

hdpe injection molding grade

hdpe film grade --

hdpe hollow grade --

ldpe film grade

ldpe coating grade 6300 --

ldpe injection molding grade - 6100

lldpe film grade

iii Future forecast

the main factors affecting the recent trend of PE are: 1 Global consumer demand will increase with the advent of Christmas and new year's day, which will be very beneficial to restoring consumer confidence and alleviating the world economic recession. 2. The impact of China's announcement of tariff reduction on the market. In the short term, it is bound to cause Chinese traders to throw out their goods and wait for the official tax reduction before purchasing, which has a negative impact on the market. But in the long run, as the tax reduction rate is only 1.8%, the impact on the market will not be too great. 3. The price reduction and inventory clearing of domestic petrochemical enterprises have a great impact on the market, and the market is difficult to improve in the short term. However, this is very beneficial to the good transfer of the market at the beginning of next year. 4. The price trend of international crude oil, naphtha and ethylene will have a direct impact on the need for PE electronic universal testing machine to go through the preheating field in the future. 5. The continuous price decline for more than a year has led to a serious decline in the benefits of the petrochemical industry worldwide and large-scale losses, which will inevitably promote more and more petrochemical enterprises to limit production or even stop production, and the PE supply will be reduced, which will form a strong support for the stability of the market in the future. Therefore, we expect that it is difficult to change the weak trend in the PE market for a period of time, but there is little room for prices to fall, and the prices of some brands will gradually stabilize. Once the source of imported goods is insufficient, the prices will rebound

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